Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

(1:31) 2-A.Lee punts 53 yards to TB 27, Center-49-J.Drescher. 18-B.Reedy to TB 37 for 10 yards (36-B.Baker; 96-K.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.44 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model