4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to ARI 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 30 for no gain (52-C.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model