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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 28

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 2

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.82 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model