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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 48

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep middle to 13-D.Thomas [97-C.Heyward].

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.81 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model