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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 52

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to KC 16, Center-57-K.Canaday. 10-T.Hill to KC 18 for 2 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.78 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model