Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 12

(12:41) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to PIT 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model