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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 89

New York Jets 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to NE 48, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 47 for -1 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.61 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 89, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 46, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP