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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 41

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to NYJ 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.66 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model