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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 49

New York Jets 17 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass incomplete deep right to 14-J.Kerley. NYJ-11-R.Anderson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.30 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP