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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 10

New York Jets 14 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 10, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model