4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 9

New England Patriots 21 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.52 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP