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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 65

New York Jets 14 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to NE 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 21 for 7 yards (51-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.68 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 23, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP