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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 73

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to NYJ 38, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model