Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 84

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

(5:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to JAX 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.

The Three Options

GO -3.58 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model