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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to LA 33, Center-43-M.Overton. 10-P.Cooper MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 32. 10-P.Cooper to LA 32 for no gain (29-L.Pitts).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.30 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model