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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to JAX 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-M.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.60 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model