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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 47

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to JAX 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-89-T.Higbee.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.56 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model