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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 2-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model