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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 47

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to LA 11, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model