4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.33 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP