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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to LA 36 for 9 yards (23-N.Robey).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.86 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model