4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to JAX 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-M.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.39 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 24, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP