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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to JAX 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 19-M.McCaffrey ran ob at JAX 16 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.11 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model