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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 3-B.Nortman punts 28 yards to LA 23, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model