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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 18

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:49) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.45 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 18, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model