4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 20 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 19 – Tennessee Titans 22

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.01 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model