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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 5

Tennessee Titans 12 – Indianapolis Colts 19

What Actually Happened

(4:40) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 5, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model