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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 12 – Indianapolis Colts 19

What Actually Happened

(7:41) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to IND 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.39 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model