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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 83

Indianapolis Colts 19 – Tennessee Titans 12

What Actually Happened

(8:44) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.69 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 83, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model