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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 22

Tennessee Titans 6 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(4:15) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.61 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP