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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 52 – Detroit Lions 38

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +0.93 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.01 EP