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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 52 – Detroit Lions 38

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to DET 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 39-J.Agnew to DET 18 for 6 yards (33-T.Edmunds). NO-54-N.Stupar was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.15 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model