Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 59

Detroit Lions 31 – New Orleans Saints 45

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 18-J.Locke punts 49 yards to NO 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on NO-42-Z.Line, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NO 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -2.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model