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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 64

New Orleans Saints 45 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to DET 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model