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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 45 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to DET 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 39-J.Agnew for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-39-J.Agnew, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.94 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 84, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.08 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 42, worth -2.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP