4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 45 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to DET 29, Center-49-Z.Wood. 39-J.Agnew to NO 45 for 26 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.39 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model