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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 75

Detroit Lions 10 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 18-J.Locke punts 49 yards to NO 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model