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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 41

New Orleans Saints 24 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 41-A.Kamara right end to DET 35 for 6 yards (59-T.Whitehead). Brees handed off to #42 Z.Line, who then lateralled to #41 A.Kamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.41 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model