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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 5-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model