Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 97

Houston Texans 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

(5:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to HOU 44, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-J.Peppers pushed ob at HOU 27 for 17 yards (51-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -3.69 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.62 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 97, worth -6.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model