Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 51

Cleveland Browns 0 – Houston Texans 3

(6:05) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to HOU 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-41-M.Jordan.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.71 EP
65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -3.00 EP

KICK -1.64 EP

29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
71% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model