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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 3 – Houston Texans 33

What Actually Happened

(:27) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to HOU 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-C.Thompson to HOU 11 for 6 yards (40-D.Vitale).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.30 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model