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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 53

Houston Texans 24 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to CLE 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-14-C.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.06 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model