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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 23

Houston Texans 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.13 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model