Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 65

Houston Texans 24 – Cleveland Browns 3

(1:54) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 21 for 5 yards (28-A.Blue).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.73 EP
75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model