Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 3 – Houston Texans 24

(2:47) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to HOU 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-W.Fuller V to HOU 43 for 20 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun; 47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model