Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 93

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

(4:48) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 54 yards to TEN 39, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.57 EP
56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 93, worth -5.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model