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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:26) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to MIA 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.72 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 51, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.97 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model