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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 91

Tennessee Titans 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 63 yards to MIA 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 42 for 14 yards (14-E.Weems).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 91, worth -5.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 48, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model