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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 47

Miami Dolphins 10 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:46) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 40 yards to TEN 7, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-31-M.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.47 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model